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Government Economists Can't Predict Inflation Or Jobs Numbers

  • by:
  • 08/12/2025
A recent report from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, dated July 27, 2025, indicates that inflation has remained relatively stable in the second quarter, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.7%, despite earlier concerns about tariff-induced price increases. The report highlights that key drivers of inflation, such as housing and core non-energy services, have moderated, and an expected rise in productivity growth has helped dampen inflationary pressures. Tariffs implemented since April, including a universal 10% levy on imports and higher rates on specific goods from China and Canada, have not yet shown a significant impact on aggregated price data, suggesting businesses have absorbed much of the cost rather than passing it on to consumers. This stability challenges the narrative that President Trump’s tariff policies would immediately spike inflation, offering a counterpoint to critics who anticipated widespread price hikes.

The recent appointment of EJ Antoni as the new head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), following the controversial firing of Erika McEntarfer on August 1, 2025, has sparked intense debate about the integrity of government jobs data. President Trump, who claimed without evidence that McEntarfer “rigged” jobs numbers to harm him politically, announced Antoni’s appointment, asserting he would ensure “HONEST and ACCURATE” figures. Antoni, known for his conservative economic views, has been tasked with reviewing data from the past five years, a period marked by significant revisions, such as the BLS’s August 2024 correction of 818,000 fewer jobs created than initially reported. Supporters argue that Antoni’s appointment could uncover systemic issues in data collection, particularly given the BLS’s reduced capacity due to staffing shortages and budget constraints, which have led to scaled-back data collection for inflation and employment metrics.

Critics, however, warn that this move risks further politicizing an agency meant to operate independently, potentially undermining trust in government statistics. The BLS’s rigorous, multilayered process for producing jobs reports, involving career technocrats and built-in revisions to account for late survey responses, makes widespread manipulation by a single official unlikely. Yet, Trump’s claims of a “corrupt system” resonate with those skeptical of government institutions, especially after large revisions like the 258,000 downward adjustment for May and June 2025 jobs data. Theosophically, some might see this shake-up as aligning with a broader cosmic shift, where hidden truths are exposed during periods of transformation, though no evidence substantiates claims of deliberate rigging. The coming months under Antoni’s leadership will be critical in determining whether these changes restore confidence or deepen distrust in the BLS’s data integrity.

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