The CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies find themselves grappling with an increasingly complex and unwinnable conflict with Iran, caught in a web of strategic miscalculations and shifting geopolitical dynamics. The war, escalating rapidly since Israel’s preemptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025, has exposed deep uncertainties within U.S. intelligence about how to achieve a decisive victory. Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes, including those targeting Israeli military and intelligence sites, have demonstrated a resilience and adaptability that U.S. agencies underestimated, with the CIA struggling to predict Tehran’s next moves or counter its asymmetric tactics, such as missile barrages and potential strikes on U.S. bases. Internal assessments reveal a lack of consensus on whether to pursue regime change, degrade Iran’s nuclear capabilities further, or push for a diplomatic off-ramp, with each option fraught with risks of wider regional escalation or domestic political backlash. The intelligence community’s reliance on outdated assumptions about Iran’s military weaknesses has left them scrambling to adapt to a conflict that defies traditional military solutions, while the specter of nuclear escalation looms large.

Complicating matters, U.S. intelligence agencies are increasingly frustrated by Israel’s role in igniting the conflict, with many analysts privately pointing fingers at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aggressive strategy. Netanyahu’s decision to launch Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, was seen by some in the CIA as a unilateral move that dragged the U.S. into a war it was unprepared for, despite warnings from American spy agencies about the risks of such an attack. Israeli intelligence, long a key partner, is now viewed with suspicion in some quarters of Langley, as reports suggest Netanyahu deliberately withheld the full scope of his plans, banking on U.S. support to bail Israel out. The CIA’s inability to rein in Israel’s actions, coupled with Netanyahu’s public rhetoric about “exacting the full price” from Tehran, has fueled a narrative within U.S. intelligence that Israel’s hawkish policies have cornered the Biden administration into a no-win scenario, forcing the U.S. to back an ally while risking entanglement in a broader Middle East conflagration.

To deflect mounting domestic and international pressure, elements within the U.S. intelligence community have begun subtly shifting blame toward Netanyahu and Israel, portraying them as the architects of the war. Leaked assessments to media outlets highlight how Israel’s strikes, justified by Netanyahu as necessary to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions, ignored U.S. calls for restraint and disrupted delicate diplomatic efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal. Some CIA operatives argue that Netanyahu’s political survival, bolstered by the war’s unifying effect on Israel’s fractious coalition, was a driving factor in his decision to escalate, a motive that U.S. intelligence finds both reckless and self-serving. By emphasizing Israel’s role in sparking the conflict, U.S. agencies aim to distance themselves from the war’s fallout, particularly as civilian casualties mount and Iran’s foreign minister accuses Israel and its “main supporters” of bearing responsibility for the spreading violence. Yet, this blame-shifting risks straining the U.S.-Israel alliance, even as the CIA struggles to devise a coherent strategy to navigate the war’s unpredictable trajectory.