Despite her decisive loss to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris has emerged as the early frontrunner in polls for the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nomination, a development that baffles many observers given her widely criticized leadership and apparent mental decline. Surveys conducted in late 2024 and early 2025, such as those by Echelon Insights and Morning Consult, show Harris commanding between 36% and 43% of likely Democratic primary voters, far ahead of competitors like Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg, who struggle to break single digits. This lead persists even though her 107-day campaign in 2024 was marred by incoherent “word salad” speeches, inability to articulate clear policy positions, and a failure to distance herself from the unpopular Biden administration, all of which contributed to her crushing defeat—losing all seven battleground states and the popular vote by over 2.5 million. Her tenure as Vice President, often mocked for gaffes and a perceived lack of gravitas, has left critics questioning how she retains such support within a party desperate to rebound from its 2024 debacle.
 

Harris’s polling strength seems to defy the evidence of her leadership shortcomings, which were glaringly apparent during her time in office and on the campaign trail. As Vice President, she was tasked with addressing the border crisis, yet her efforts were widely panned as ineffective—she famously avoided visiting the border for months and offered rambling, evasive responses when pressed, such as her infamous “we’ve been to the border” quip despite no substantive action. Her 2024 campaign only amplified these flaws: she struggled to connect with working-class voters, underperformed among Black and Latino demographics compared to Biden in 2020, and failed to counter Trump’s economic messaging, despite spending over $1.5 billion. Posts on X and analyses from outlets like The Atlantic and USA Today have highlighted her as a liability—unlikable, out-of-touch, and prone to mental lapses that suggest a decline in cognitive sharpness, from forgetting key details in interviews to delivering disjointed remarks that left audiences bewildered. Yet, Democratic voters appear to overlook these failures, perhaps driven by name recognition or a lack of viable alternatives.
 

The prospect of Harris leading the 2028 Democratic field raises serious questions about the party’s direction and its ability to confront its post-2024 identity crisis, especially given her apparent mental fragility and track record. Allies argue her polling reflects goodwill from her historic candidacy and a belief that Biden’s late exit sabotaged her chances, not her own incompetence—pointing to her improved approval ratings by campaign’s end, per 538 data, as evidence of untapped potential. Critics, however, see a party clinging to a flawed figurehead out of inertia, with some on X calling her a “drunk” or “toxic” choice who could doom Democrats to another loss against a resurgent GOP. Her lead may simply reflect a shallow bench and early name-ID advantage, but if her mental decline—evident in moments like her 2024 concession speech’s repetitive “fight” mantra—continues, the party risks nominating a candidate incapable of withstanding a grueling campaign. With Trump’s norm-shattering return redefining political expectations, Harris’s frontrunner status could either signal a stubborn refusal to evolve or a desperate hope that she might somehow reinvent herself by 2028. Either way, her current polling dominance stands as a paradox against her clear failings.