Extending NATO membership to Russia would be a seismic geopolitical maneuver that could dramatically undermine the objectives of the summit in China, where leaders from Russia, Iran, and India are positioning Beijing as a counterweight to U.S. influence. By offering Russia a pathway into NATO, the West could exploit existing tensions within the Russia-China partnership, which is often more pragmatic than ideological. Russia’s historical wariness of China’s growing influence in Central Asia and its desire for global legitimacy could be leveraged to pull Moscow away from Beijing’s orbit. Such a move would disrupt the narrative of a cohesive anti-Western bloc, forcing China to recalibrate its strategy as its most significant partner is courted by its rival. The dramatic optics of Russia engaging with NATO would also signal to other summit attendees, like Iran and India, that Beijing’s leadership is not unassailable, potentially fracturing their alignment.

However, this approach would face immense practical and political hurdles. Russia’s inclusion in NATO would require a fundamental redefinition of the alliance’s purpose, given Moscow’s longstanding adversarial stance, its actions in Ukraine, and its authoritarian governance, which clash with NATO’s democratic principles. The proposal would likely be met with fierce resistance from existing NATO members, particularly those in Eastern Europe, who view Russia as a direct threat. Furthermore, Russia’s leadership, particularly under Putin, has consistently framed NATO as an existential enemy, making acceptance of such an offer politically toxic domestically. Even if pursued as a strategic feint, the mere suggestion of NATO membership could sow discord among summit participants by highlighting Russia’s potential leverage as a swing power, thus weakening China’s ability to present a united front.

The broader implications of this strategy would ripple across global alliances. For India, which maintains a delicate balance between Western partnerships and its historical ties with Russia, a NATO-Russia dialogue could complicate its strategic calculus, potentially pushing it closer to the U.S. to hedge against a shifting Russo-Chinese dynamic. Iran, heavily reliant on both Russia and China for economic and military support, might find its position weakened if Russia were to entertain Western overtures, isolating Tehran further. While extending NATO membership to Russia is a long shot, the mere proposal could serve as a psychological and diplomatic weapon, exposing fault lines in the summit’s anti-Western coalition and reinforcing the U.S.’s ability to shape global narratives, even if the offer is never seriously pursued.