According to crime data analyst Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics and creator of the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), the United States is on track for the largest single-year decline in murders ever recorded in 2025. Preliminary data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies show murders dropping nearly 20% compared to 2024, following a 13-15% decline the previous year. This sharp reduction comes after a pandemic-era spike that saw homicides surge by about 30% in 2020, marking a remarkable reversal and potentially pushing the national murder rate to its lowest level since reliable records began in 1960.

The RTCI, which aggregates monthly reports from over 570 agencies covering more than half of U.S. murders, indicates the trend is widespread, with significant drops in cities like Baltimore (down over 30%), Albuquerque (32%), and many others hitting lows not seen since the 1960s. Broader violent crime categories, including robbery and aggravated assault, are also falling, alongside property crimes like motor vehicle theft. Independent sources, such as the Gun Violence Archive, corroborate the homicide plunge, reporting a 13-17% decrease in fatal shootings. Asher notes that while final FBI figures won’t be available until 2026, the current trajectory suggests around 12,000 fewer homicides in 2024-2025 combined compared to the 2020-2021 peak.

Experts attribute the multi-year decline—now in its third consecutive record-setting year—to a combination of factors, including post-pandemic investments in community programs, violence intervention initiatives, and localized policing strategies, though causation remains complex and debated. Despite the progress, challenges persist in high-violence areas, and analysts caution that sustaining such steep drops may prove difficult without continued efforts. Overall, the data signals a historic improvement in public safety, offering relief after years of elevated crime rates.