In a stunning turn of events, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared victory over Israel following a 12-day conflict that ended with a ceasefire on June 24, 2025, catching global observers by surprise. Despite U.S. and Israeli intelligence reports indicating severe damage to Iran’s nuclear program and the loss of 30 Iranian military commanders, Khamenei claimed in a televised address on June 26 that Iran had “crushed” the “Zionist regime” and delivered a “severe slap” to the United States. He framed Iran’s retaliatory missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar as a decisive blow, asserting that the U.S. intervened only to prevent Israel’s total collapse. This bold narrative, devoid of specific evidence, has shocked analysts who expected Iran to acknowledge its weakened position after Israel’s air dominance and U.S. bunker-buster strikes on nuclear sites.

Khamenei’s victory claim has confounded the international community, particularly because Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities were reportedly degraded significantly during the conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that Iran’s nuclear program was set back “many years,” while U.S. President Donald Trump claimed the strikes “obliterated” key facilities, though preliminary intelligence suggested a delay of only months. Yet, Khamenei’s defiant rhetoric, including congratulations to the Iranian people for their “victory” over both Israel and the U.S., has resonated domestically, with state media amplifying celebrations in Tehran. This unexpected bravado, despite Iran’s losses, suggests a strategic effort to bolster internal morale and maintain the regime’s legitimacy, which relies on a narrative of resistance against Western and Israeli aggression.

The global surprise stems not only from Iran’s weakened military position but also from Khamenei’s ability to spin a ceasefire—widely seen as a necessity due to Iran’s vulnerabilities—into a triumph. Posts on X reflect earlier expectations of Iranian retaliation, with Khamenei vowing a “bitter and painful” response to Israel’s initial strikes on June 13. Yet, his post-war messaging has shifted to project strength, ignoring the deaths of 28 Israelis from Iranian strikes and the destruction of Iran’s air defenses. Critics, like those cited in Pravda, argue that Iran was “brought to its knees” in under two weeks, making Khamenei’s claims appear delusional to outsiders. However, his strategy may be less about convincing the world and more about consolidating power at home, where dissent and economic woes threaten his regime, leaving the international community grappling with how to respond to this audacious narrative.