Considering whether Joe Biden could have achieved the same vote count in the 2024 election if he had run involves looking at several key factors. The 2020 election was exceptional due to record voter turnout driven by the unique political climate, including strong anti-Trump sentiment and the urgency of voting during a global health crisis. If Biden had run in 2024, the enthusiasm might not have been as potent, given the changes in political dynamics, voter fatigue, and concerns about his age and health. Biden's performance in debates and public appearances leading into 2024 would have likely continued to be scrutinized, potentially affecting voter confidence in his ability to serve another term.
 

The political landscape of 2024 was markedly different from 2020. Issues like economic recovery, international conflicts, and domestic policy outcomes shaped voter priorities differently than in the previous election. Trump's campaign in 2024 focused on themes like economic policies and immigration, contrasting with Biden's record in office. Moreover, the methodology of vote counting, with less emphasis on mail-in ballots compared to 2020, could naturally lead to lower overall vote totals, regardless of who was running. The narrative around Biden's 2020 vote count, often questioned for alleged fraud or exaggeration on social media, could have further complicated his campaign, potentially impacting voter turnout or support.
 

Finally, even if Biden had matched his personal vote count from 2020, the electoral college dynamics in 2024 showed shifts in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which had flipped towards Trump. This indicates that even with a similar number of votes, Biden's path to victory might not have been as clear. The public's perception of Biden's presidency, combined with any lingering doubts about the integrity of the 2020 election, could have created a different electoral environment in 2024. Thus, while Biden might have retained a significant voter base, achieving exactly 81 million votes again would have been influenced by these evolving factors, making it a speculative endeavor.