The day after the midterms, Brent crude fell 8.7 percent in a single session. West Texas Intermediate shed roughly 13 percent on the week—the steepest weekly collapse since the spring of 2020. The fighting in the Gulf continued without interruption. Vessels still came under fire in and near the Strait of Hormuz. The only fact that changed overnight was the conclusion of the American election.
Prices continued lower this morning. WTI traded near $85–87 a barrel while the same waters remained contested and the same tankers remained targets. No material shift in physical supply, tanker traffic, or military posture occurred between the closing of the polls and the opening of the next trading day. The sole variable that moved was the political calendar.
For months, elevated gasoline and diesel prices sustained a narrative of an “affordability crisis.” Markets had priced a durable risk premium on the Iran conflict; that premium receded the moment electoral accountability arrived and the president signaled restraint. The timing was too precise to be coincidence. Intelligence agencies, banks, and trading desks had every incentive to maintain pressure long enough to shape the midterm result. Once that result was recorded, the pressure lifted on schedule. The operation ended when its political utility expired.
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